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It Is Projected That Global Demand For Container Shipping Will Decrease By 1%

Global Container Shipping Demand Projected to Decline by 1% in 2025

According to the latest forecast from Drewry, a leading maritime consultancy based in London, global container shipping demand is expected to fall by 1% in 2025. This marks only the third recorded decline since Drewry began collecting data in 1979.

Historical Declines in Container Throughput

Previously, global container volumes fell by 8.4% during the 2009 global financial crisis and by 0.9% in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted global supply chains.

Key Driver: U.S. Tariff Policy

The primary reason for the projected downturn is the current U.S. trade policy, which imposes a 10% tariff on goods from most countries and a staggering 145% tariff on imports from China. Drewry notes that if two-thirds of these tariffs remain in place, U.S. imports from China could drop by as much as 40%.

China is currently the largest supplier of consumer goods, industrial components, and furniture to the U.S. While some of the losses may be offset by production shifting to lower-tariff countries such as Vietnam and India, Drewry estimates that imports from these alternative markets may only grow by up to 15%.

Industry and Market Reactions

Many U.S. companies are already taking drastic measures in response to the uncertainty. RC Willey Home Furnishings, a Berkshire Hathaway-owned retailer, has suspended all orders from Chinese factories, including shipments that are ready for dispatch.

Company CEO Jeff Child stated that tariff uncertainty is hurting both retailers and consumer sentiment:

“The biggest obstacle to consumer confidence is uncertainty.”

The National Retail Federation (NRF), representing major chains such as Walmart and Target, forecasts a minimum 20% decline in containerized imports through U.S. ports during the second half of 2025, as businesses halt orders from China.

Impact on the Global Supply Chain

German container carrier Hapag-Lloyd has reported that 30% of its bookings from China to the U.S. have been cancelled due to growing trade tensions. Major U.S. ports, particularly the Port of Los Angeles, are already feeling the effects. The port's executive director warned that import volumes could begin declining as early as May 2025, signaling a challenging year ahead for the container shipping industry.

Broader Economic Implications

Economists have expressed concern that the U.S. tariff policy could push the world’s largest economy toward recession, triggering a ripple effect across the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also anticipates that global growth will slow if these tariffs remain in effect.

Conclusion

As the global economy strives to recover post-pandemic, declining container shipping demand - driven by trade policy shifts - adds significant pressure on already fragile supply chains. Logistics providers, importers, and exporters must prepare to adapt their strategies in response to evolving trade environments and global market dynamics.